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Saw this on Facebook:
I spoke with the DOHA Case Officer regarding 191. ... X The response was that they are not currently processing any grants. Instead, their focus is on strategizing future grants. The Case Officers (COs) are assisting the administration in finalizing quotas, as they are aiming to allocate a 4-year quota instead of the usual 1-year quota. Aside from a few COs handling visitor and some PR visas, the majority are currently supporting the quota finalization process. This is expected to continue until end-July or early August. After that, the department will begin processing applications based on Ministerial Order 105.
Just wondering if its true?
Can someone help me do the 190 math here?
Using the latest spreadsheet, I can see there were around 35000 on-hand cases at the start of the 2024-2025 financial year.
I can also see by the end of May, there had been roughly 25000 new applications made in the same financial year, plus about 33000 grants and a few hundreds of refusals and withdrawals.
Yet, there are around 31000 on-hand cases in total.
So, if the number of grants, refusals, and withdrawals are 8000-9000 higher than the number of 190 visa lodgements, why do we only see a 4000 decline of on-hand cases?
What did I get wrong?
State of 189 As per FOI data as at 31 May 2025, 7111 visas are pending grant. June was very quiet, so we can approximate around 7000 pending as at 30 June 2025 (end of FY).
Last FY (ending 30 June 2024) ending backlog for 189 was also around 7000. The planning level was 16900. Total 189 invites issued were ~23000.
Since this FY (2025-26) opening backlog is similar to last FY backlog, the size of rounds this FY now depends on the planning levels. If the planning level is again set to 16,900, we can roughly expect 23000 invites (crude approximation), a ratio of ~1.5.
Once the new planning levels are released, as a rough estimate we can just 1.5X to get an idea of the total 189 invites to be issued in FY.
Feel free to comment below if you have any views/feedback/correction.
